The Next Raiders Quarterback
The Raiders quarterback conundrum is like that little monster under your bed. You may be sleeping peacefully tonight in the wake of Norv’s exit, with dreams of a new era dancing in your head. But you also know that the monster still lurks, teeth bared and ready to pounce. We had a problem at head coach. We still have a problem at quarterback.So let’s depart from the coaching discussion for a moment and delve into the quarterback conundrum. After all, the fate of the new coach may largely fall on the performance of the new quarterback (or old quarterback, if Collins somehow survives the purge).
The last time the Raiders picked a QB in the first round, it was a disaster, as Todd Marinovich
soon found his true calling as a pot-smoking skateboarder. He and Ryan Leaf are probably pen pals. Mr. Davis never seemed predisposed to grooming young QBs in the first place. Marinovich didn’t help. So as intriguing as a Vince Young or Matt Leinart might be, is it realistic to expect the Raiders to make a move to jump up the board and take one of them in the first round? Or to even sit tight and pick another highly ranked QB in the first round? Not based on recent experience. I don't have to like it (and I'm not sure I do, because I think it might be high time for the Raiders to find their own Manning or Palmer or Brees or Roethlisberger; perhaps his name is Walter, but that remains to be seen), it's just a fact.More likely, then, is a veteran pickup. Among the potentially available QBs, there are no truly proven commodities (always a rarity at that position). Peyton Manning, for example, is what I would call a proven commodity. David Carr, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Aaron Brooks, Jamie Martin, Josh McCown, Brad Johnson, etc. are not proven commodities, at least in the positive sense of the term.
I don’t want to jump to conclusions on Jon Kitna (another unproven commodity), but he was initially impressive on Sunday off the bench against the Steelers. His name has rarely been mentioned among the top available QBs going into 2006. Yet he was the AP’s NFL Comeback Player of The Year in 2003 before taking the back seat to Carson Palmer the following season. He has essentially been on ice ever since. Personally, I’d forgotten about the guy until Sunday. A
lot of people had.Perhaps there is a little Gannon in Kitna: an experienced journeyman, refining his skills and finding his groove while biding his time, with enough youth left to bring three or four years of consistency to a team (and guide a guy like Walter along the way). Sure, he melted down in the second half of the Steelers game, but he was sharp early, and was playing catch up after that, which is a tough gig coming out of the ice chest. Regardless, Kitna showed enough fire, poise and skill to ignite the imagination. Unlike Collins, when receivers weren’t open, he moved around and bought time instead of just chucking the ball 20 yards out of bounds at the first sign of trouble. In 2003, he had a higher QB rating than Collins ever has. By all accounts, he has taken his Bengals backup status like a man and a team player, but is still hungry to start somewhere. He is a free agent going into 2006.
Now, before you come in here and rip my head off with five talking points about why Jon Kitna is the second coming of Jeff George, please understand that I’m just saying that Kitna merits consideration. I do not pretend to be a QB talent expert, and as such I am not alone. Very few people besides Al Davis and Jon Gruden, for example, saw Rich Gannon not for what he was, but for what he would become.
In review, here are my conclusions: (1) The quarterback issue is still huge here in the Raider Nation, despite the current coaching distraction; (2) Al Davis gave Collins a little love the other day, but that doesn’t mean Collins won’t be shown the door; few in the Raider Nation would welcome him back as our starter; (3) there is no evidence that Tui is being groomed to take the helm, and it’s doubtful that Walter will rise to starter’s status by next September; (4) there is little reason to expect the Raiders to spend a first-round pick on a quarterback, based on recent history, which thus nudges the discussion toward a veteran free agent pickup; and (5) Jon Kitna has asserted himself among the ranks of available veteran QBs. If I'm missing something, let me know.
Of course, the sooner the Raiders put a plan together for 2006, including a new head coach, the more choices they will have at their disposal to make a quarterback decision that fits that plan.
posted by Raider Take at 5:40 PM
32 Comments:
Kitna couldn't even survive Seattle. He is basically a Kerry Collins-lite. He'll tease you with some good plays, then commit a bonehead turnover at the worst possible time. What he has proved in his tenure at Cincy is that he is one of the best BACKUPS in the league. He is good for a few spot starts, but nothing more. I'll take my chances with Collins again.
I hear you, CJ, that sums up the bulk of Kitna's career, up to 2003...He is still what I would consider unproven.
However, in 2003 he led the Bengals (who were coming off a 2-14 season and one of the worst franchise runs in NFL history) to eight wins. Kerry Collins led the Raiders, Randy Moss and all, to four wins in 2005.
In that context, you might call Collins Kitna-lite.
I don't know if this can be properly answered 100% until we know who the next head coach is.
However, since we all know Raider history, we can be at least 75% sure that Al is going to want the QB to be a magna cum laude graduate of the Lamonica School of Long Bombs. Al also has a tendency to lean towards Super Bowl experience as well (Hostetler, Collins), so that should also be factored in. And, of course, I echo RT's comment about the Raiders actually DEVELOPING a QB...I just don't see it happening.
A couple of possibilities I've mentioned before are David Carr (especially if the Texans decide to draft Vince Young) and Kurt Warner. Although he has no SB experience, Carr's arm strength is a definite commodity and his impressive win over the Raiders last year might have swayed Al.
I still think Kurt Warner has a future with the Raiders, if for nothing else his play in 1999 when he took that Raider-style long-bomb offense in St. Louis to the Super Bowl. That probably earned plenty of brownie points with Al.
Other good possibilites are Brad Johnson (subpar arm, SB experience) David Garrard (impressive in relief of Leftwich) and maybe even Billy Volek if they can pry him from Tennessee.
I'd love to see Carr in here but, unless Al takes a chance on a coach that bucks standard Raiders offensive protocol, I see it being either Collins or Warner in here next year.
I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that the Texans will retain Carr and draft Bush.
I watched Warner play this season against Seattle. This guy is beyond washed up. I would rather see Plunkett suit up for Oakland.
As far as current NFL QBs, my short list includes Steve McNair (who I think would be a great stopgap while Walter is developed), Carr (if he is indeed available), David Garrard, Brad Johnson and Billy Volek. I was going to list Brees, but his injury leaves a huge question mark over his head.
Since the free agent market for QBs is thin, Al might need to consider making a creative trade of draft picks and a starter or two to pry away a QB from another franchise.
My short list of QB's to target would be Culpepper, Johnson, Brees, Kitna, and Carr.
Culpepper is coming off a major injury but would have a huge upside especially reuniting with Moss. Would the new Vikings owner cut bait on Culpepper because of the "Love Boat" incident and re-sign Brad Johnson?
I would have to differ with you RT on Johnson. Although he has had a somewhat up and down career, here are the reasons I like him suiting up in the Silver and Black;
-62% career completion
-TD/Int ratio: 155/102
-Led Bucs to a SB victory/season
-This season's performance taking a Viking team that had hit rock bottom and going 7-2 in his 9 starts.
Brees is coming off of a major injury but reminds me of Gannon with a slightly stronger arm. The chances of working out a trade with inter-divisional rival Bolts seems remote at best.
Kitna's game management and leadership skills plus mobility would be a major upgrade over KFC. However, with Palmer suffering a major injury vs. Pittsburgh, I could see Cincy re-signing him as a major insurance policy.
Carr is unproven but has the physical skills and toughness to be a winner. With the groundswell of support in Houston for VY, could GM Casserly change his mind about the #1 pick?
My second list of QBs is a group of QBs that would be stop gap measures that would accomplish 2 things. #1 Relieve KFC of his duties. #2 A bridge to allow Walters a couple years to be groomed for the starter role.
This list might include Brian Griese, Aaron Brooks, Kurt Warner, John Ramsey, and Josh McCown.
All of these guys have their shortcomings. I would hate for the Raiders to settle on one of these guys but I would pick any of them to be my starting signal caller over KFC.
Calico Jack, I should clarify on Brad Johnson and the others mentioned in my take...
I just think Brad Johnson is still an unproven commodity (and I include Kitna in that category). Like Kitna in 2003, he's coming off a surprisingly strong year. Like Kitna, he may find himself back on the bench if he stays with the Vikings and Culpepper returns. If he's available, I think he's definitely worth a look.
Guys like Johnson and Kitna are potential bridges between Collins and Walter, if Walter (or another newly drafted QB) is deemed worthy of being the future. During their tenure, these "old guys" might even pull a rabbit out of their hat and take us somewhere.
I like Carr's upside (although that clock is ticking), and Matt Schaub of Atlanta has looked pretty sharp in limited action (McCown, perhaps, too). If you could pry one of these younger guys away from their respective teams, then I think you're looking at a different scenario, one in which you're looking at them as the QB of the future, not Walter.
Now if Brees or Culpepper actually become available, then that's a new discussion. I'm working on the premise that they are not.
RT - Although I agree with most of your points, I still differ on your view of Brad Johnson as an "unproven commodity".
Johnson's body of work as a starting QB in 109 games (Vikes, Skins, Bucs, and Vikes again) gives you a very clear picture what he brings to the table. He is a smart, savvy, veteran QB with proven game management and leadership abilities. He is an accurate passer who takes care of the ball.
Johnson might not be flashy or have one skill that stands out but his total package of skills (or lack of major deficiencies)is worthy of serious consideration. Last but not least, I feel that any QB who has led his club to a SB victory deserves a certain level of respect and attention.
Calico Jack, you make good points.
However (and I'm not trying to be smarmy here, just wondering), given your take, and also given his performance this year, it's sure hard to explain why the dude was on the bench in Minnesota behind a franchise quarterback in a 32-team league that is woefully short on effective quarterbacks.
If he's available, he's worth a hard look.
One thing to consider: he's four years older than Collins and Kitna.
The next Raider QB...
Until we get a coach this is all speculation but this is what i see potentially playing out:
No way Collins comes back cause he has proven he is not a winner; he is not a bad QB and he did OK statistically but he should could have done better; I haven't seen a Raider QB as hated as KFC. Keeping KFC could cause riots and it would be dangerous.
Knowing Al theres no way he rides on Walter.
I know Al will give Warner a good look cause Warner throws long bombs and has won a title. But the only thing I like about Warner is you can count on him getting hurt and that would force us to give Walter a chance.
Before Sunday I would have said Kitna, but no way Cinci lets him go now.
Johnson I think is a proven commodity; not a great commodity but he has shown what he can do in the league. The AFC west will tear him apart but he would be slightly better than KFC.
I like Matt Schaub of Atlanta. And I see a potential trade of Porter and/or Gabriel, Tui, Morant, draft picks possibly unfolding. Atlanta does need to upgrade WR since they never blame Vik for the passing woes.
Last but not least I think only Al could convince Farve to suit up in Silver and Black.
I want Schaub or Walter...
Unless the Raiders move up in the draft, the QB situation looks pretty bleak. Kitna is, like Collins, a half decent journeyman, nothing more. I got a good steamy look at him during his time in Seattle. He's streaky enough to make you believe for a series or a half, but he can't close the deal more than 50% of the time. He's not Kerry Collins lite. Think Dave Kreig-lite.
I wouldn't look for much from Warner either. We already have a big armed quarterback with mobility problems and a penchant for turning the ball over when pressured. Why blow more money on another one?
Brad Johnson might be interesting as a stop-gap. He's a guy who won't win you the game by himself, but he won't screw up too often either. The Chargers would only trade Brees or Rivers to us if we aimed guns at their GM's head, and I don't think Carr or Culpepper is going anywhere. Starting QB trades are freakishly difficult in the modern league because of the bonus accelerations that are involved.
All in all, it would be a shame if Davis chose to pass on this draft. Leinart is ready to play now. He could help turn us around even faster than Palmer turned around the Bengals, and we could have him in silver and black for ten or fifteen years.
Davis will probably spend his pick on a defensive player like A.J. Hawk, and it's hard to argue with that. We need linebackers and he's a good one. Still, Davis is in his late seventies. The gap from Plunkett to Hostetler was long, as was the gap between Hostetler and Gannon. How long does Davis want to wait for another good QB castoff to emerge on the wire? It's a question he may want to ask himself as April approaches.
Remember Al Davis did try to trade up to Take John Elway. If the player is there Al wants he will try to make the move no matter what position so I do not agree with your assessment.
Oakland must have some different oxygen to anywhere else in the league it seems as QB's seem to take 3 times as long to develop here. Walter has sat for a year already, why does he need another two years?
Plenty of QB's get the gig in year one or two, Walter is as accomplished as many of them.
I suspect for many Raider fans they'll prounounce Walter 'ready' the year before he hits FA, or 2013, whichever comes sooner.
So in the absence of any forward thinking at QB, or commitment to developing a kid with talent, let's ride the 'bumtrain' for another two years with whoever is surplus to requirements elsewhere.
Raider fans all over the World,
Join hands,
Ride the bum-train, bum-train
Raider fans all over the World,
Join hands,
Ride the bum-train, bum-train
The next QB will be.... DEAD MEAT unless we address the o-line!
Doesn't matter who you put back there if you can't protect him.
Man, I miss the good 'ole bi-polar road rageing road grater at center :-(
If it's going to be a "bridge" between Collins and Walter, then just stick with Tui.
He couldn't do worse than Collins, and I don't think the Jets game should necessarily close the door for him. I put that off more to poor game planning and play calling in combination with poor blocking. I prefer to remember his performance against Kansas City when Tim Brown stepped out of the end zone to catch what would have been a winning touchdown. Least we forget his Rose Bowl performance where he bested Drew Brees.
An additional benefit is cap space that can be used to upgrade the O-Line and get a pass rushing LB to complement Burgess. A better O-Line and an offense that takes advantage of Tui’s mobility and Jordan’s talents is the best option currently on the table, in my humble opinion.
Further, an additional LB who can pass rush, would take pressure, and double teams, off Burgess thus cutting down on his potential for injury as we saw what he can do with a full healthy season. It would also help out what will be a very young, but potentially good, secondary.
HS
The thing you're forgetting is that Palmer's injury might keep him out all of next season. If so, expect the Bengals to attempt to retain him.
I don't want to get into another pissing contest about Al Davis, but I can't live in a mindspace where Mr. Davis gets all of the blame for the bad years but none of the credit for the good ones, such as 2000 through 2002.
In the bad years, he's this meddling all-powerful dinosaur with his fingerprints all over everything. Yet from 2000 through 2002, he was passive and uninvolved, with all of the credit going to Chucky? It's hard for me to reconcile this discrepancy.
I'd love to see the Raiders develop a QB. Stabler was the last one, and that's a heck of a drought.
I'd also like to see a coach that runs the ball, so our QB can be successful. Stop giving up on the run game when we're 10 points down. Run, run some more, run again, and when those DEs and DTs are too beat up and tired to rush the passer, then throw it!
And honestly, I don't like any of the free agents out there. I'd rather sign a guard worth a damn.
PS
"Always with the negative waves, Moriarity; always with the negative waves" [my comment for the Al bashers, 'specially those who referenced the 70's]
Coming out of the SB, the Ravens went with Boller because they had a dominant D and thought they could bring him along and still win. Didn't happen for lots of reasons. I'm pretty sure Al's in the 'win now' mode and since we don't have a dominant D [although it's heading in the right direction], I don't think he'll go with the 'bring the QB along' strategy. That leaves out the new guys [why would we try to get Schaub when he has only like four games more experience than Walter?] unless there's some preemptive strike as was tried with Elway years ago. It looks like the 2006 QB will be a veteran [forget Brees--besides being in division, shoulder injuries reoccur, see Mark Bulger]. Not Warner [has problems throwing with serving fork sticking out of back], Kitna [KC without the arm]; Johnson [may have the savvy but is one hit from announcer's booth--see 2005 o-line]; Garrard [accuracy of Jay Schroeder]. The possibles--Collins stays; Volek, if Titans draft a QB; and the favorite, Carr. Here's hoping it happens.
I was disappointed to see Childress get scooped up. I think the Eagles offense is the best scheme for the Raiders to adopt. In 2004, the last year they ran it effectively, they had TO and two bums at wideout but they threw 35-40 times a game, many deep stikes and intermediate passes. We have better WR personnel and can you imagine that O with a power back like Jordan? You throw alot and make the D line rush the passer for 2 and a half quarters and then pound the hell out of them on the ground late. Suits our personnel and attitude. Coaches and QB apply at the silver and black window....
I like Carr's upside, too, especially if Pat Hill is tapped for coaching duty...
At the risk of sounding like the Jon Kitna Fan Club (because I agree that Carr has more potential, it's his availablity that's in question), I have to disagree with the assessment that Kitna is Kerry Collins lite, or merely Kerry Collins without the arm. The last time Kitna was a starter, he led the woeful Bengals to eight wins and was named comeback player of the year (and that's the last we really saw of the guy for any duration; we never got to see if he could build on it).
Collins hasn't even come close to that achievement with the Raiders.
Kitna may not have Collins' arm, but what good is Collins' arm when it's used to throw the ball 20 yards out of bounds at the first sign of trouble? The Kitna I saw the other day was running around, buying time and keeping plays alive.
I'm not saying that Kitna is the second coming of Johnny Unitas, but it's hard for me to buy that he ranks below Collins, based on available recent evidence.
All this talk about Brad Johnson, Jon Kitna, Steve Mcnair, and other "older", type Qb's is really making my eyes glaze over. Haven't the Raiders gone down this road so many times, looking to find that Jim Plunkett magic again. The Raiders must go with youth, & they must find a way to move up in the draft to get one of the Qb gems in this yrs draft. We must do this even if it means trading Randy Moss to move up, & get, say a Matt Leinhart. Then let Leinhart, Tui, and Walter fight it out for the starting job. This can only happen if Al Davis changes his thinking. We'll know very shortly, when AD hires the new head coach. If it's the same old puppet coach, then expect a vet with a little something left at Qb.
Ok, all you guys pointing the finger at Al Davis, get over yourselves. I've been following this team since he was the coach.
This is the man who has built teams that have been to the Super Bowl five times. If memory serves me correctly only one team in the NFL has been there more. He is only three years removed from the last trip. The trophy case contains three Lombardi Trophies.
John Madden was not a puppet, neither was Tom Flores, Art Shell or Gruden. He let Gruden go because Gruden wanted to go. Gruden wanted to go to Tampa. It’s where his family was, his brother, his father and mother. Al Davis called him and asked him before he made the deal with Tampa.
These things being written about Mr. Davis have been written about him off and on for the last 20 years and were written before he hired Gruden. I agree with Raider Take, he gets all the blame and none of the credit. If a QB doesn’t throw a single completion over 20 yards and the Raiders run the ball 40 times a game and win the Super Bowl, he would be perfectly happy.
He has a philosophy about football and with the right combination of players and coaches it will win. He is not patient with losing, and for that I thank him. He may not fix it the first time, as in the Norv Turner hire, but he will fix it.
HS
HS, you've been through all the Raiders wars, and I respect that, but I'm not a johnny come lately either. I've been a Raiders fan since 1974. It's true that for a good 25 yrs, Al Davis could do no wrong, but that is only half the story. Yes, Madden, Flores, & Gruden were no puppets, but you forget to mention White, Bugel, Callahan, & Turner. Even Art Shell sat Marcus Allen on the bench on Davis' orders, knowing it would hurt the teams chances of winning. It's also true that Davis has a certain philosophy, but the only winning teams the Raiders have had lately, used Grudens west coast style, which differs greatly from what Davis believes in. I also disagree that Gruden wanted to leave. He wanted to stay, but with a little more control. He didn't want to coach a team that took fat, troubled, kickers in the first round. Gruden was winning, and had earned the right to have a little more say. But Davis wouldn't give an inch. He ran Gruden off for a treasure of picks, and blew every one of those picks to boot. Now we stand at the crossroads again, and many fans assure others that Davis will fix it all. The thing is he already had fixed it, only to break it again, and that leaves the rest of us very worried. Try to picture this: It's kick off time, 2006. Jim Fassel stands on the Raiders sideline, and K. Collins is under center. It's enough to make us all long for the old days, or even just 2000.
Not to get off the track about possible Head Coaching and QB candidates but I thought it was very interesting to note what Al said in his tele-conference call last week. He said that one of the biggest disappointments in 2005 was the Raiders inability to establish a power running game. Clearly the new HC will need to commit to the run.
Raider00 - Fassell barking out orders to KFC under center is enough to cause me to get violently ill. I am hopeful that the combination will be more like Carthon/Volek, Linehan/Culpepper Hill/Carr, Singletary/Johnson, Saunders/Kitna, Telford/Walters or some variation of the above listed combos. Anything but Fassell/KFC!
I know what you mean. I watched the game and saw the same passion and poise of Gannon (i.e.- always looking to the next play-> down field). I miss that fire at QB.
But Kitna, Carr and anyone for that matter isn't going get the offense moving.
Oakland needs to establish an O-Line first though. Remember how the Chargers struggled w/ great core in LT, Gates, and Brees. Then their O-Line became strong, and SD's offense came alive.
I think Walter is the future, but w/ an average O-Line Collins can still be effective (and I'm not a Kerry fan). No one can expect a QB to survive w/ how shameful and weak Oakland's O-Line was last season. Lets see Oakland build a strong line, until then let Kerry take the hits and blame.
Hey Raidertake- I think it starts with putting Gallery at left tackle.
RT-
I agree Kitna had a great year with Cincy in 2003. I still don't see the same QB you do. He's definetly more mobile than Collins but I saw the same poor decisionmaking Sunday--maybe it was rust. Kitna started 3 years in Cincy and in the two before 2003 he was 16/16 and 12/22 on TD/INT. He's 34 in 2006 so my take is that if he makes poor decisions with the ball at this age, he's past the point where he can get better, like Collins. If he is better than Collins, I ask myself this question--is he enough of an upgrade to take us where we want to go? I still come up with "no" and I can't come up with a coach that would turn that into a yes.
LK, you make good points. I'm with you and a lot of people here, my wish list would include some of these younger names popping up around here. Trust me, Jon Kitna is not at the top of my wish list. Tom Brady is.
But until I receive further notice from the Raiders, I'm working from their established premise, their penchant for veteran QB pickups. Availability is also a factor in this discussion (I don't think Tom Brady is available). I'm looking at the field from this perspective. If we get confirmed rumors that the Texans are dangling Carr, or that Mr. Davis wants to deal up in the draft to pick Vince Young, then we have a new discussion!
I am certain of one thing: Collins must go. As Bad Boy Berto said, there may be riots if he starts next year.
P.S. Another advantage of Kitna over Collins: he showed he can actually hurry up to the line to try to score some quick points and get back in a game, instead of trudging to the line like a teenager being told to do homework.
RT-you're rising early this morning in Quaketown! You have good points especially on the urgency issue. Following your logic on Mr Davis' history of veteran reclamations, what about Brett Favre--wouldn't that be a classis Al Davis move?
If you are looking for the next Gannon the choices are Brad Johnson and then possibly Kitna. Kitna became my fantasy QB in 2003 and I can vouch that he was extremely consistent that year and ran the offense well. I was shocked that Lewis turned over the QB reigns to Palmer right after that season ended and even more shocked that Kitna stayed on as the back-up. I think he can be a smart veteran ype QB in the mold of Gannon though not as mobile. I just wonder why he so willingly sat down for 2 years coming off his breakout year.
Brad Johnson is showing the same intangible as Gannon-the ability to win whereever he goes. He's not great and not as savvy or as mobile as Gannon but give him decent protection and he can run an offense that could include Moss as a major piece. I would opt for Brad if available but Kitna could be a a good second choice. JUST GET RID OF COLLINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Raider Take -
With the aid of a 20 oz. flavored coffee drink, I fleshed out my views on the QB scenarios late last night. (click on my icon and go to my latest blog entry)
Calico Jack, nice breakdown and analysis. Check it out, folks.
P.S. I wonder if Al Davis will sell me that leather jacket seen in that photo on your blog?
Can someone tell me more about Walter? I have only seen him play one time, which was the pre season stint versus SF.
I realize it was preseason, and that it was the 49ers, however...this is what I took from the viewing experience:
1) He is big.
2) He is strong and can take a hit.
2) He has a strong arm.
3) He is mobile.
4) He is very accurate.
5) He broke some of Elway's pac 10 records.
What am I missing? If my above observations are accurate, then we need to find an affordable # 2 quarterback that has some experience and eliminate Collins & Tuiasosopo, and get some help on the line to protect Mr. Walter.
Other moves that I would favor:
1) Eliminate Woodson...he's done.
2) Trade Porter now while he has market value. I know he's good, however Gabriel and Moss can get it done for us.
We need to upgrade the O line, change the QB, and pick up another veteran pass rusher.
These are some of my thoughts. We'd better do something. The 90's were pitiful and now we start off the new century like this? It is tough being a Raider fan in the mile high city...I need the Raiders to back me up a bit.
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